bonshui asked:


Something occurred to me, and I wondered if anyone could tell me whether or not it is a genuine paradox (or something far more obvious!)

Big lotteries like the UK national lottery and Euromillions advertise ‘estimated jackpots’ each week. For example, this week the estimated jackpot for Euromillions is £38m (wow!)

Premise 1:
When there is an unsually large pot on offer (e.g. a ‘rollover’), more people are likely to buy a ticket.

Premise 2:
If a larger than usual number of people buy tickets, there will be a larger than usual prize fund.

Conclusion:
The jackpot will be larger than estimated.

Minnie